Monday, May 9, 2016

With +/-5 error margin…
Duterte leads survey at 45%,
Mar trails at 32% -Bohol Poll

TAGBILARAN CITY, May 6, (PIA) –Presidential front runner Rodrigo Duterte still maintains a 45% preferential lead among Boholano voters, while closest contender Mar Roxas tails getting 32% of Boholano voters, according to the Holy Name University (HNU) Bohol pre-election round of polls.

At the survey which ran from April 10, then continued April 18 to May 2, Duterte slightly gained four more points from his 41% preferential rating in the regular round of the Bohol Poll conducted last March 12 to April 4. 

Meanwhile, administration’s Liberal Party (LP) standard bearer Roxas managed to gain five more points from his 27% share of voters in the regular polls.

With the survey using 400 respondents in a multi-stage sampling, HNU Bohol Poll project manager Maria Paz Espiritu said the margin of error is pegged at +/-5.

Using that same margin, Duterte, who runs under Partido Demokratiko ng Pilipinas (PDP) maintains a statistical advantage over Roxas, especially in Tagbilaran City with 52% preference from 100 voters and in District 3 (Loay-Alicia) at 53% for 100 voters. 

At 45%, Duterte also owns the biggest firm commitment of voters who have firmly made up their mind picking the Davao City Mayor at 73% while 65% of Roxas’ 32% voters have firmly made up their minds.

On the other hand, 10% of Duterte’s 45 % voters may still have to chance their minds in the last three days while 13% of Roxas 32% voters may also change their preference.

On third post, from a statistical tie between presidential aspirants Grace Poe (Nationalist People’s Coalition) and Jejomar Binay (United Nationalist Alliance) in the early April survey, Poe lost two points from her 16% vote share to 14% in the pre-election polls.

On the other hand, Binay lost a substantial 6 points from his 14% preference of voters in early April to 8% in late April to early May.

The survey, which came out four days before the May 9 elections, also showed that on its test statement: 73% of Boholano voters agreed that it is not bad to accept [election bribe] money and still vote based on one’s conscience.

On the same question, only 19% disagreed while some 7% of voters remained undecided.

As to attitude towards bandwagon voting, 84% of Boholanos still would vote according to conscience, while only 16 % of voters would most likely vote for those with the biggest winning chance.

As to command voting, 81% or most of Boholano voters would want to vote according to personal decision over the 19% who would most likely abide by what their leaders tell them. (rac/PIA-7/Bohol) 

No comments: